A Seismic Shift in the Computing Ecosystem Brings Opportunity

Feb 4

6 min read

790

x86, ARM, and RISC-V

The current computing ecosystem is in disarray; the industry is undergoing a major transformation, fueled by emerging market leaders and disruptive technologies. As the founders of AheadComputing, we see chaos as an opportunity and believe our team possesses unique expertise to help create a new and improved ecosystem for the future. AheadComputing is joining the RISC-V ecosystem. The opportunity exists today to enhance per-core performance, which we consider the cornerstone of multi-processor system efficiency.

Let's quickly review how we arrived at this point and identify the key players. Two dominant software ecosystems, x86 and ARM, along with the emerging RISC-V ecosystem, are competing across all markets—from microcontrollers to data centers. Additionally, the rapid growth of AI-related computing is presenting unprecedented performance and power challenges for both AI accelerators and general-purpose computing. Significant attention and investment are being directed towards data-parallel AI accelerators, while the equally crucial per-core performance and general-purpose aspects of the AI revolution have largely been neglected. This blog focuses on this overlooked area of computing, where there hasn't been such potential for market disruption and new leadership since the 1990s.

The x86, ARM, and RISC-V ecosystems are currently engaged in an intense competition in terms of per-core performance and general-purpose computing.

The x86 ecosystem

Let's begin with the x86 ecosystem, which is experiencing significant leadership changes internally (between Intel and AMD) and externally (due to competition from several major players in the ARM ecosystem).

Within the x86 ecosystem, Intel has been the dominant market leader for most of the past forty years, maintaining a significant 10-40% per-core performance advantage over AMD. However, in recent times, Intel's supremacy has been significantly challenged. A revitalized AMD has introduced highly competitive products, whereas Intel has encountered difficulties with quality and innovation speed. Recently, Intel has:

Missed the mobile computing revolution
Lost process technology leadership
Delayed product launches due to production problems
Damaged its reputation due to quality problems in the field

The decrease in market share weakened Intel's strong leadership in standards organizations, software enabling initiatives, market creation, and academic research support, among other areas. Although traditionally a follower, AMD has captured x86 market share but has not assumed these crucial industry leadership roles.

Key players in the ARM ecosystem are challenging the traditional x86 markets in client and data centers. In the data center arena, ARM server attempts initially struggled to gain traction until Amazon's Graviton servers launched in 2018. The success of Amazon's ARM-based servers has spurred other major cloud providers to develop their own ARM-based data center systems.

On the client side, intense competition from major ARM ecosystem players is challenging the x86 client laptop and desktop form factors. ARM-based Chromebooks are expanding their presence from low-end markets to higher-performance markets previously dominated by x86. Apple transitioned all their notebook, desktop, and workstation products from x86 to their own ARM-based systems in 2020. Qualcomm and Microsoft collaborated to launch ARM-based Windows PCs starting in 2023. Other SoC vendors are also aiming to enter the ARM-based Windows PC market.

AMD is gaining x86 market share from Intel; however, the x86 ecosystem as a whole is losing market share to ARM.

The ARM ecosystem

The ARM ecosystem boasts a rich history spanning over three decades. ARM develops and licenses its core technology as intellectual property (IP). ARM offers a wide range of core IP, from compact low-power, low-performance microcontrollers to high-performance application processor core IP. Numerous System-on-Chip (SoC) vendors license ARM’s core IP to design, produce, and market thousands of products for cell phones, TVs, home automation, networking, automotive, space, data centers, and many other applications. The mobile computing revolution marked a turning point when ARM-based phones became the primary platform for computing, communication, and entertainment in everyone's pocket. Today, smartphones outsell personal computers by a ratio of 5:1.

ARM permits certain customers to purchase an architectural license, enabling them to design custom or semi-custom cores independently. These customers are restricted to using their custom cores solely in their own SoCs and are not allowed to sell their core IP to others. Companies like Apple and Qualcomm hold such a license and have utilized it to create custom cores that outperform ARM's core IP.

Facing pressure to develop cores comparable to those of Apple and Qualcomm, ARM has elevated the tiers of its Cortex and Neoverse product lines in recent years. Additionally, there are rumors that ARM might shift from licensing IP to manufacturing and selling its own chips [1][2], potentially competing with its clients. If this rumor proves true, it will be intriguing to observe how current ARM customers will navigate a market scenario where ARM could progressively influence the economic dynamics to favor its own silicon.

In the microcontroller market, ARM is encountering significant competition from the RISC-V ecosystem. This market is characterized by low margins and costs but operates at very high volumes. The RISC-V architecture, with its royalty-free instruction set, has captured a substantial portion of the microcontroller market from ARM. ARM has essentially conceded, as they are no longer intending to create new microcontrollers.

The RISC-V ecosystem

The RISC-V ecosystem originated as a UC Berkeley project in 2010 with the aim of developing an open standard instruction set architecture, rooted in the "Reduced Instruction Set Computer" (RISC) principles. It was handed over to the RISC-V Foundation in 2015 and later to RISC-V International in 2020. Currently, RISC-V International releases the documents that define the RISC-V instruction set architecture and allows unrestricted use for software and hardware design.

Numerous companies, academic institutions, and individuals are creating RISC-V collateral to enhance the ecosystem, encompassing hardware, software, and products of various forms, sizes, and applications. As previously noted, the microcontroller market has largely shifted to RISC-V: ARM will cease developing new microcontrollers, and MIPS has abandoned their MIPS architecture, transitioning their product line to RISC-V.

In both the client and data center sectors, developers of RISC-V are focusing on these markets (for instance, DeepComputing's SoC for Frameworks laptops was released in 2024, and separately, several companies are working on data center solutions for 2026). These developments are reminiscent of the initial ARM entries into these markets during the 2010-2014 period. These pioneering RISC-V players are advancing to build the RISC-V ecosystem.

The Future of x86, ARM, and RISC-V computing landscape; chaos brings opportunity

The competition within the general-purpose computing ecosystem, particularly among the x86, ARM, and RISC-V instruction set architecture ecosystems, is fierce and thrilling. Who will come out on top? At AheadComputing, we've placed our bet on RISC-V.

The X86 ecosystem is fiercely defending its territory but is destined to lose in the end. The strength of x86 lies in its 40-year legacy and history of software compatibility; software developed decades ago can still operate on current hardware. Rewriting or recompiling complex software with decades of development to switch to another architecture is extremely challenging. Consequently, moving away from x86 will be gradual and expensive. The unavoidable downfall of x86 will stem from the intricacy of its 40-year legacy. Complexity results in high engineering development costs, extended development time, and a greater chance of bugs and security vulnerabilities. High tech is characterized by rapid pace and swift innovation. Ultimately, the x86 ecosystem will fall behind in performance, innovation, power, and cost. Moreover, there is a growing number of software techniques to facilitate the transition of applications from one computing ecosystem to another. The decline of x86 will be slow but certain.

The ARM ecosystem, encompassing its instruction set architecture, pricing, and licensing, is dominated by a single entity: ARM Holdings. Massive corporations, with combined multi-trillion-dollar business models, are dependent on this one company. ARM Holdings is altering its business model and strategy to compete with many of its clients. We anticipate that the ARM ecosystem will experience considerable strain in the coming years. If ARM's current customers are pressured excessively, they will consider transitioning to an alternative architecture like RISC-V.

The RISC-V ecosystem has emerged victorious in the microcontroller market, with AI and automotive sectors soon to follow. The client and data center markets are also on the horizon. Although RISC-V’s software ecosystem is still in its early stages, history shows that superior technology prevails in the end. RISC-V offers inherent advantages such as a low barrier to entry, no licensing fees, a simpler architecture, and other elements that encourage innovation, competition, and superior products. As a result, RISC-V companies will inevitably develop better products, driving the shift from a nascent to a mature software ecosystem. Fundamental engineering and economic forces will propel RISC-V to become the leading ecosystem, surpassing x86 and ARM.

AheadComputing

AheadComputing will be essential to the RISC-V ecosystem. Per-core performance is a key factor in general-purpose computing. At AheadComputing, we are uniquely equipped and committed to meeting this demand. Our founders collectively bring over a century of experience and each of our team members are experts in the development of advanced per-core performance solutions. This extensive expertise allows us to consistently produce the world's fastest CPUs, generation after generation.

Stay tuned for more blog posts about:

CPUs are not good enough
Amdahl’s Law and multiprocessor scalability limitations
There will always be more IPC
Performance and power efficiency
AI workloads and per-core performance

Debbie Marr

Feb 4

6 min read

790

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